In this new episode of Daniel Davis Deep Dive, I take you inside one of the most uncomfortable but unavoidable truths of this war: there is no longer any path to “changing the game” in Ukraine. The battlefield realities are set, Russia holds the dominant military position, and the trajectory of this conflict is no longer in doubt. The only real question left is how severe Ukraine’s eventual losses will be.
In the clip I’m sharing today, I break down one of the core issues Western leaders still refuse to confront. Europe continues to insist on a “just and lasting peace,” but what they really mean is a peace on Kyiv’s terms—including keeping the Donbas and every inch of territory Ukraine still claims. Zelensky repeats this position constantly. European leaders echo it. And even though President Trump is more cautious, he hasn’t endorsed Kyiv’s demands either.
But here’s the hard truth: you cannot negotiate a settlement that ignores the realities on the ground. Russia is not going to surrender the Donbas. Moscow has been consistent on this point since 2022, and nothing in the military balance suggests that will change. Yet Europe continues to behave as if it can compel Russia to accept an outcome it has the power to reject.
In this segment, I explain:
Why Europe’s definition of “just and lasting peace” is detached from battlefield reality
Why the Donbas remains the immovable roadblock to any settlement
Why Western leaders still believe they can force Russia into compliance
Why Kyiv’s political position is now completely out of sync with its military position
This is a critical piece of the larger picture I cover in the full episode. If you want to understand why diplomacy keeps failing—and why the West’s expectations are making the eventual outcome worse for Ukraine—this clip lays out the essential logic.
👉 Watch the clip now.
And if you want the full breakdown, the complete episode is available for you.
